Collectible Value: Intrinsic or Extrinsic?

I'm all over the place right now, so I'm not sure where I came across this information, but I thought a discussion, or reportage, would be a worthy use of time.

I have been plotting out, for years now, a series of pieces about comic books. Possible snooze-fest alert. Anyway, something struck me with the new Ryan Reynolds "Deadpool" movie that is finding success currently.

As far as collectible comic books go, for a character like Deadpool the first appearance of the character would most likely be the most sought after, and hence, the most valuable. I will illustrate this topic using both Deadpool and another culturally beloved character that followed this pattern. This other character had his first full appearance in "The Incredible Hulk" #181:

Wolverine showed up for one panel in issue 180, but the one above, 181, saw the first full brawl-mode of the popular anti-hero, and is considered the more valuable product by today's standards.

In the late 1980s and very early in the 1990s people who had been teens in the 1970s began to notice that after the 1986 publication of "The Watchmen" and "The Dark Knight Returns", comics were beginning to be taken a bit more seriously as an artform. The characters they grew up with were now getting cartoons and other licensing properties, and a new generational audience. They started to look back to their roots, and tried to fill out their collections.

But in the 1970s comic books were seen as children's toys and not something that may have high levels of value assigned to them, and the majority of the issues people were seeking had been destroyed or were very worse for the wear.

The scarcity of good product drove the price of those back issues up. So, if you were to want to purchase a very nice copy of Hulk 181, it will set you back somewhere in the thousands. But, by the late 80s, early 90s, it was still hundreds, but the writing was on the wall: first appearances were going to turn profitable.

It's too bad the writing was misread.

This is the speculator bubble that caused the ruckus of the 90s. Companies started producing high levels of "first appearance" issues for a whole slew of characters. The big one at the end of the 1989 that arrived (cover date March 1990) was the first appearance of Cable (a character that has turned into the symbol of all that was wrong in the industry at the time) in "New Mutants" #87:

I still remember this book occupying one of the hot-spots in my Wizard Comic Guide's back-issue top-ten lists during my early 90s collecting period.

I didn't read Marvel at the time and mostly resented the X-Men, for reasons that at this time I can't explain. An issue of the New Mutants that came out a year later I remember holding in my hands as I briefly picked it up, and put it back, shaking my head. They're copying Spiderman and making him a mutant?

That is issue 98 of the same series, only this time they're introducing Gideon, Domino, and what I took to be the Spiderman rip-off, Deadpool. He does really resemble Spiderman, right?

Now, since the Cable sold so well, each new round of "first appearances" was printed in huge numbers, so everyone could get in on the future earning action. But wait, whoops, this ignores the truth behind those old-school high-price back issues: THEY FETCHED HIGH PRICES BECAUSE THEY WERE SO SCARCE. Who will pay a lot of money for something that everyone has ten copies of? (Cue bubble bursting sound effect.)

That leads to: why is Deadpool's first appearance in New Mutants 98 garnering upwards of $300 on eBay and other selling depots?

There are probably no less than 100,000 copies in fully mint condition, and this estimate may be low by a magnitude of 3 or 4.

I don't know enough about the character Deadpool to know his deal, like why he's so popular, or cool...maybe the irreverence? Maybe he's Marvel's inside joke character?

Really, any collectible is only as valuable as someone is willing to pay. So, does the value come from what's inside or how difficult it is to obtain? It seems appropriate to say that it's shades of both...

Anyway: friends don't let friends spend too much on New Mutants 98!

On a side note: Issue 87, the Cable issue, is the first of the Rob Liefeld issues. He was one of the three major superstar artists that demanded some stake in the characters they created (like Cable and Deadpool), were rubuffed, and so left Marvel and created Image Comics, a publisher that retained no character rights. Jim Lee and Todd McFarlane were the other superstars that defected, although seven or eight artists all gambled on themselves at that time.

I could go on and on...and on...(snooze alert)...